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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still